One bright morning, Rohit and Mohan, two old friends, met for their usual coffee catch-up. Both had been hearing about the benefits of SIPs (Systematic Investment Plans) and decided to dive deeper into how SIPs work. Rohit was eager to understand when the “best time” to start an SIP was, while Mohan was more interested in the long-term impact of starting at different points in the market cycle.
Rohit: “Mohan, I’ve been thinking. What if we could predict the exact top or bottom of the stock market? Wouldn’t it be better to start my SIP at the bottom when prices are low?”
Mohan: “Hmm, sounds tempting, but there’s more to it than meets the eye. Let’s assume for a moment that you do have magical powers and can start your SIP at the perfect bottom. I, on the other hand, will start at the top when the market is at its highest. Want to see who ends up with more wealth in the long term?”
Rohit (laughing): “Alright, let’s do it! But it’s pretty obvious that you’d be worse off starting at the top, right?”
Mohan pulled out a notepad and began explaining.
Mohan: “Let’s take an example. Imagine back in January 2008, you started a monthly SIP of ₹10,000 in the BSE Sensex TRI. The market was at its peak then, just before the big crash.”
Rohit: “Ouch, sounds risky.”
Mohan: “True, but bear with me. By July 2024, you would have invested ₹19.9 lakh in total. And guess what? Despite starting at the top, the value of your investment would now be ₹74.7 lakh with an annual return of around 14.4%.”
Rohit (raising an eyebrow): “That’s quite impressive. But what if I had started at the bottom?”
Mohan: “Great question! Now let’s say you began in March 2009, right after the market crashed (The Great Recession). You’d have invested ₹18.5 lakh in total, slightly less than me. However, your investment would now be worth ₹63.8 lakh, with a return of 14.7%.”
Rohit (surprised): “Wait a second! I’d make less, even though I started at the bottom of the market?”
Mohan: “Exactly! While your percentage return is slightly higher, I’ve invested more because I started earlier, so my overall wealth is greater. This is what we call the Cost of Delay. The longer you wait to start, the bigger the gap becomes. Missing out on those early months or years can cost you a lot in the long run.”
Rohit: “But why is there such a big difference?”
Mohan: “It’s simple: compounding. Time is the most powerful tool when it comes to investing. The longer your money stays invested, the more it grows. Even though the market was at its peak when I started, my money had more time to compound. Over time, the highs and lows even out, and the timing becomes less important.”
Rohit: “So, in the long run, it doesn’t really matter if I start at the top or bottom of a market cycle?”
Mohan: “Exactly! Over many years, the difference in returns between starting at the top or bottom becomes almost negligible. The real risk isn’t the market; it’s not starting early enough. The biggest mistake is missing out on the power of compounding.”
Moral of the Story:
Mohan summed it up, “Rohit, it’s not about timing the market, but time in the market. The earlier you start, the more wealth you can create. Waiting for the ‘perfect’ moment can cost you far more than starting at a peak ever will.”
Rohit nodded thoughtfully, realizing that the best day to start his SIP was not tomorrow, but today. So do not waste your time and keep things simple.
Simplified Money Talks 